Glenn,
I just returned from the ANA's World's Fair of Money Convention in Chicago (actually Rosemont). From what I saw and from what I was told, prices for rare coins in general ("CC" coins included) are all over the map in terms of comparisons to say three years ago. There's no way we could give a Dow-Jones-Industrial-Average-type answer to the question you pose (Rare-Coin-Investment-Average?).
The bad economy, the downturn in the stock market, and a universal sense of uncertainty (uneasiness—FEAR), are affecting coin collectors-investors' buying decsions. The people who are buying coins are definitely being very picky in their selections.
Quality (exceptional eye appeal) rules. The separation of values between above-average to high-end coins (regardless of the grades) and below-average and schlocky coins is growing wider all the time. Coins with pizzazz, coins that stand above the the rest, at any grade level, are commanding higher premiums, while on the other hand, mediocre-looking coins are selling at fire-sale prices.
Areas of the coin market that are sadly suffering from the plight of the shaky state of affairs in the financial markets, are non-key-date type coins, regardless of the quality levels. I saw Proof coins from the 19th century, even early Proof coins (Pre-1859) take beatings in auctions (even the ones with knockout eye appeal).
I would say premium quality "CC" coins (including the GSA dollars about which you asked) are holding strong in this wavering market. Tho it is not indicative of the "CC" coin market in general, I will tell you that I paid a record price for an 1870-CC Seated half dollar in Mint State condition. I guess I could say I bought it for a bargain price, because I was prepared to pay much more for it—But a record price is a record price, right? I paid strong prices for other "CC" coins that I bought, while at the same time I saw low-end (for the respective grades) "CC" coins, even very rare ones, sell for what would look on paper to be "giveaway" prices.
For example, I had my sights set on an 1876-CC $10 gold piece graded NGC AU-55, which I need for a good client. The coin had problems, however, and was not worthy of the grade, so I passed on it. The coin sold for $16,100. This is date-grade combination potentially worth $30,000 to $35,000. The $16,100 price is just a little more than a high-end XF-45 example would sell for.
Another example of a very high profile "CC" coin that disappointed at the auction was an 1870-CC $20 gold piece graded AU-53 by NGC. The consignor reserved it for $357,500 ($411,125 with the 15% buyer's fee added in), and it did not even draw a hint of interest from anyone—Primarily because it wasn't very attractive).
As for the "CC" GSA silver dollar market, I would say that premium quality specimens, in all dates and all grade ranges, are bringing strong prices, while on the other hand, low-end specimens are selling at discounts—sometimes very deep discounts. If a collector is only interested in plastic and NGC certificates, there are probably some incredible bargains out there. But, like the old saying goes, "You get what you pay for."
I hope this brief summary of the coin market in general, with a special emphasis on GSA dollars, helps with your question about the connection between coin prices and the staggering economy.
Rusty
C4OA Lifer!
