Population reports

Hi everyone, I was not sure where to put this, but I am gointg with Resources since The Mint on Carson Street is the subject. On Collector's Universe, someone asked a question about the rarity of Carson City issues and there was general concensus which are the top 4 rarest. Then in an effort to come up with the fifth, someone asked if anyone had some reliable population reports for 6 coins. I, who can't miss an opportunity to demonstrate some knowledge about coins, offered populations reported in The Mint on Carson Street, as follows:

"'70-CC Eagle... All grades 70-80... Uncirc 1... XF-AU 35-40
'79-CC Eagle... All grades 65-70... Uncirc 1... XF-AU 40-45
'70-CC Qtr..... All grades 39-49... Uncirc 2... XF-AU 8-11
'71-CC Qtr..... All grades 35-45... Uncirc 3-4... XF-AU 6-7
'74-CC Dime... All grades 25-35... Uncirc 5-6... XF-AU 6-8
'70-CC Double Eagle... All 45-50... Uncirc 0-1... XF-AU 28-33

Source: Rusty Goe.... The Mint on Carson Street... Second Printing 2004"


Then another person, who I do not know, thought that the numbers were not realistic and offered the following:

"I don't know about the gold but I think those silver coin #'s are way off.

The 70-cc 25c, 71-cc 25c, and 74-cc dime, are probably in the 50-100 range.

I'd put the dime as the rarest with 50-75 pieces (there aren't 5-6 uncs either), then the 70-cc 25c in the same range, then the 71-cc in the 75-100 range.

It's possible each of those ranges could extend by another 25 pcs. each. And the 70-cc and 71-cc quarters are not very far apart.

I did comparative studies on all seated denoms and the 74-cc was the leader among all "collectible" CC coinage by FAR.
The CC seated dollars and halves fell way short of these guys. Not even close. The CC dimes and quarters rule."

"roadrunner"


Anyway, not looking for a comment, it just goes to show that everyone has a better idea.

The entire thread is at

forums.collectors.com/messageview.cfm?ca...d=826624&STARTPAGE=1

RE: POPULATION REPORTS

Greetings to all C4OAers

In reply to this article, and in particular the "other person" who stated that he thought Rusty Goe's survival figures of the 1870-CC quarter; 1871-CC quarter; 1874-CC dime were "not realistic" I offer to you this defense of Rusty and his survival estimates.

First, I would like to state that many people in numismatics are more than happy to give opinions and stats regarding issues just like this one. I personally tend to take those "offerings" with a grain of salt and here's why: I tend to trust and rely on figures professed by professionals who handle these rare coins on a yearly, monthly, weekly, and daily basis. I have no doubt in my mind who the foremost "CC" expert in the world is...of course it's Rusty Goe. I'm not just saying this because he's my good friend and "brother" (which he is), I am saying this because he has proven himself in the field. He has handled the finest and rarest “dream" "CC" coins in the world, beyond anything any other dealer has done...simply put, he is the expert's expert when it comes to Carson City coinage.

Regarding Rusty's survival figures as mentioned here in this article, there are a few points I would like to mention:

First: Rusty Goe has knocked himself out writing great articles in Curry's Chronicle and other publications explaining how he and other researchers come up with their estimates of survival figures for rare coins. He has published those revised estimates in many articles. Rusty has also made it clear that unlike most researchers, he doesn't include problem coins in his estimates. In other words, coins that the major grading services won't grade. These "problem" coins that other researchers DO include in their estimates can increase the percentage of those estimates, sometimes significantly.

Rusty's figures, after all, are over eight years old and he has been working hard to update them for a revised edition of The Mint on Carson Street. Even with that information, Rusty's estimates are not "way off.” I'll bet that in the long run, Rusty's figures will prove to be pretty accurate. I would personally trust his estimates more than any other person I know simply because of his background experience and expertise in this field.

Second: As mentioned (and this is important info regarding his survival estimates), Rusty does NOT INCLUDE PROBLEM COINS—Including problem coins can distort the estimates.

Third: As also mentioned, Rusty has written many great articles about the process of making estimates on survival figures in Curry's Chronicle and other publications.

Fourth: I talk with Rusty all the time about this very subject. Although he is one of the proven world experts in this field, he admits that some of his estimates are out-dated. Back when he made those estimates, over eight years ago, he used the very best resources available at that time. Again, Rusty is working hard on a revised and up-dated edition of those estimates

I think that all of us C4OAers should invite these "other people" into our forum for informative discussions just like this one here. So, I will do just that right now...right here:

ATTENTION ALL "CC" ENTHUSIASTS AND FANS
"If you really want to learn more about "CC" coins and meet lots of like-minded "CC" fans, check out the Carson City Coin Collectors of America and visit its Web site at www.carsoncitycoinclub.com ."

Well said, my third favorite drummer, thanks for confirming that the estimates do not include problem coins. I mentioned in my response on the CU forum that Rusty also wrote an article in Curry's Chronicle, in which he describes estimates from various researchers throughout the 20th century then describes how his estimates evolved. So that's all we can do.

Hi Garryn

Thanks for your nice reply.
I know that Rusty never would publish or even utter anything "CC" related unless it was thoroughly researched down to the minutest detail...there's simply no one else on this planet that is more versed on the subject than he and I would take his research findings over anyone else.
He handles these rare babies on a daily basis and has done so for years, heck, decades! He lives, eats and breathes them.
The "Buddy Rich" of the "CC" world?...most likely!
If anyone does offer other info (or anything "CC" related for that matter), invite them to share their stuff on our discussion board here.
it's all about fun, camaraderie and the learning experience in a most positive spirit.
I wish I could be in Chicago for the big show this year....I'll bet your'e probably going to be able to be there....lucky you!

(Very flattered to be)the "third" drummer:cheer:

Yes I am planning on going on Saturday